Please see notes to Table I. There are upside risks to the baseline with the synchronised cyclical rebound, revival of global trade and easy financing conditions reinforcing each other. If global growth turns out to be 50 bps over the baseline, it could strengthen domestic growth by 20 bps above the baseline and raise domestic inflation by around 10 bps. On the other hand, protectionist policies, continuing uncertainty associated with the pace and timing of normalisation of monetary policy in the US and other systemic central banks, and higher crude oil prices pose downside risks to global demand.
But it trailed that of neighbouring China. As the region looks ahead to the next 50 years, managing the disruptive impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution must be high on its agenda.
The present situation The region faces three main challenges in maintaining its attractiveness as a manufacturing base. They fail to accelerate the pace of transformation needed to sustain their manufacturing advantage.
Their rates of value addition are significantly less than those in the more advanced industrialised economies. Secondly, low labour costs, which have traditionally been a source of competitiveness, are neither defensible nor sustainable.
ASEAN members increasingly find themselves sandwiched between countries with higher productivity and those offering even cheaper labour. Finally, new manufacturing technologies that help to increase productivity and reduce costs are emerging as a new source of competitive advantage around the world.
Disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence and big data analytics are transforming global production systems.
Their impact is being felt on everything from factory processes to the management of global supply chains. As automation gathers pace and its costs plummet, cheap labour will no longer remain a sustainable and effective strategy for attracting investment in manufacturing.
To the west, countries such as India and Bangladesh are transforming at a significantly faster clip. To the north, China is starting to regain some of the cost advantage that it had lost to Vietnam and Thailand. China has also recorded strong improvements in higher education, worker productivity, and 4IR technological readiness and application, compared to its Southeast Asian counterparts.
ASEAN countries will need to quicken the pace of their transformation or risk losing manufacturing investments to China. While they have made efforts to improve their business environment and stepped up investments in infrastructure, these need to be expedited.
New technology must be adopted and workers must be upskilled to handle them. Failure to do so will certainly result in the loss of manufacturing investments and jobs.China can sustain its economic growth based on economic and political strategies.
China has been undergoing a period of rejuvenation to become what it once was – a superpower. During the 11 th and 19 th centuries, China played a pivotal role in the world economy.
In , China was the biggest. The conceptual framework above is a convenient way of structuring the discussion on trends and constraints relating to current farming systems in the SATs. Get Full Text in PDF.
Table of Contents. Introduction; Tools and Measures; Measures of National Income; Need for New Theory; Measures and Indicators; Characteristics of a Successful Indicator. The economic history of Japan is most studied for the spectacular social and economic growth in the s after the Meiji Restoration, when it became the first non-Western great power, and for its expansion after the Second World War, when Japan recovered from devastation to become the world's second largest economy behind the United States, and from behind China as well.
Third, the pace of global economic activity in turned out to be stronger than expected due to robust growth in the advanced economies (AEs) and significantly stronger growth in EMEs.
Conventional wisdom suggests that because of technology and trade, human carrying capacity is infinitely expandable and therefore virtually irrelevant to demography and development planning.